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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
USD
- Options markets have taken heed of the negative technical signals emerging in USD markets - with major pairs taking out key upside levels (1.1033 in EUR/USD, 1.2525 in GBP/USD). Risk reversals markets flagged the upside risks to the USD across 2022, and have now fully reversed.
- Moving-average based trading strategies remain among the most profitable technical approaches to the USD Index over the past 12 months, with the simple, exponential and weighted moving average strategies all flipping to the current winning short USD trade in mid-March. Furthermore, the 30-day RSI is yet to flag the USD Index as technically oversold (the USD hasn't been oversold since Dec'20), opening 98.976, the 61.8% retracement for the 2021 - 2022 upleg.
- An MNI-weighted 1m USD Risk Reversal spiked in mid-2022 and held the higher levels for the rest of the calendar year - helping presage the USD strength into the September high. This metric has fully reversed, with the metric now below the 2022 average, and suggesting the USD remains vulnerable to the downside.
Figure 1: Weighted USD 1m Risk Reversal flags USD vulnerability
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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