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Options Pricing More Robust NOK Despite YTD Slide

NORWAY
  • NOK is the sole G10 currency to be underperforming the USD YTD in both spot and carry return terms, however the options market skew shows little expectation of further material pressure on the NOK, as 3m EURNOK risk reversals trended lower throughout the EURNOK January rally. Nonetheless, options markets assign only a 24.5% implied probability of EUR/NOK touching 10.45, and thereby erasing the YTD rally, ahead of the end of Q1.
  • Danske Bank forecast CPI-ATE Y/Y at 5.9%, expecting the slowdown in momentum for underlying CPI rises to persist into 2023. They note that some segments are struggling with lower margins and need to raise prices, and January is often a month when firms take the opportunity to adjust their pricing.
  • SEB write that the January CPI-ATE print is often subject to uneven seasonal patterns, inducing uncertainty for this print. They expect near-term price pressures to persist, putting their trajectory ahead of the Norges Bank December projections and peaking at 6.3% in March. Nonetheless, SEB see little risk of the Norges Bank deviating from their plan for a 25bps hike in March, while leaving the door open for June.
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