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Outperforming As Crude Futures Rise Over 1.5%

NOK

NOK sits towards the top of the G10 as Brent futures continue their recovery from last Thursday's lows, outperforming CAD in the process.

  • Brent has been supported by a weaker dollar, rising speculation that OPEC+ could extend/deepen cuts at the next meeting and increased Middle East tensions r.e. Iran-backed Houthi Rebels seizing an Israeli-linked vessel in the Red Sea on Sunday.
  • USDNOK is 0.6% lower on the day and has breached the 100-day EMA at 10.8032. The pair is now almost 5% lower than the Oct 26 high, aided by persistent dollar weakness in recent weeks.
  • The Norwegian data calendar is light until Thursday this week, when Q3 GDP statistics are released. However, focus locally will be firmly on the Riksbank decision on Thursday, where a hawkish 25bps hike could see NOKSEK re-test the May 30 low of 0.9647 (after the cross found support around this level last Friday).
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