PAKISTAN-Sharif Declares Victory Despite PTI Independents Holding Lead

(MNI) London - The outcome of the Pakistani general election appears to be resting in the balance, with former PM Nawaz Sharif delcaring victory and claiming that his conservative Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) has won enough seats (61 at present) to form a gov't. This is despite the count appearing to show independent candidates aligned with imprisoned former PM Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) holding 88 seats, with 217 of the 266 declared.

• A win for PTI-linked independents would be viewed as a major surprise, given that parties seen as having the backing of the military (in this instance, PML-N) have always come out on top in Pakistan's electoral history.
• Given the coalition-building likely to be required to form a gov't, the prospects of a smooth path to a new administration appear slim.
• The regional ramifications of a contested electoral outcome could prove significant as well. Tensions between Pakistan and Iran remain strained, despite a diplomatic show of amity, following exchanges of missile fire in January. With the general election in India also approaching in the spring, the decades-long emnity between the two nations is unlikely to show any sign of improvement in the event of domestic political unrest in Pakistan.
• Moreover, Pakistan is a key Asian partner in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of infrastructure and investment projects. A turbulent gov't formation process or further political paralysis could cause some concerns in Beijing, given the billions of dollars invested and large number of Chinese workers based in the country.