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Path Projections Expected to be Notched Higher at Today's MPR

NORGES BANK
  • Norges Bank decision next in 10 minutes, with 25ps hike the consensus view. The bank's Dec'22 MPR saw a peak rate projection of 3.11% for Q3 this year - this is expected to be notched higher, and indicate a strong chance for a third 25bps hike (i.e. Rates of 3.50%) by the end of the year.
  • NOK FRA already price further tightening beyond today's decision, as markets see the Dec'22 MPR as increasingly stale due to NOK weakness this year.
  • Bank could also name check more tightening as needed by the end of Q2 - repeating the Comms strategy from the January decision.

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