Payrolls Seasonality In Focus

With the February payrolls report released tomorrow, aside from a focus on the potential further boost from mild weather in the February survey week, seasonality discussions are also likely going to play another prominent role.

• January is an unusual month with large job losses. The surprising strength in the seasonally adjusted figure was down to the 2.5 million jobs lost in the month being the smallest since the mid-1990s, potentially a sign of reluctance to lay people off rather than new job creation.
• Whilst clearly a sign of a very tight labour market it will be interesting to see developments in a month that typically sees sizeable job gains, with February typically being one such month.

• Some analysts have noted how the 2.5mln jobs lost wasn't strong enough to justify the 517k seasonally adjusted figure in January, arguing for a downward revision.
• However, the calculated seasonal factor for January looks within typical ranges which could limit revisions purely on seasonal factors alone.