PDMA Releases Scenario-Based 2021 Funding Plan

The Greek public debt agency has released its 2021 funding plan, which is scenario based. Depending on early prepayments in 2021, the strategy could look slightly different, with 2 scenarios considered.

• "Scenario 1 focuses on the reduction in T-bills' stock through issuance of additional GGBs", and would have E22bn in financing needs, with new M-T/ L-T issuance making up E8bn - net change in public debt would be +E3.3bn.
• "Scenario 2 takes into account additional possible early prepayments of official and private sector debt", and would mean E24bn in financing needs, with new M-T/L-T issuance making up E12bn - net change in public debt would be +5.8bn.
• That E2bn difference in financing needs in those two scenarios (E22bn vs E24bn) is made up entirely of "early repayments" (T-bill stock reduction, official sector debt, etc.) being higher in scenario 2 .
• Given higher financing needs in Scenario 2, due to debt prepayment, there is not just higher issuance but also E500mn more from "other financing sources" incl SURE, EIB etc vs Scenario 1, and E1.5bn less of a decrease in cash reserves vs Scenario 1.
• PDMA notes: "The final amount of early prepayments will depend on market conditions in 2021".