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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
Latest polling from Odoxa ahead of the first round of the presidential election on 10 April shows centre-right Les Republicains (LR) candidate slipping into fourth place. The decline in opinion polling support comes on the back of a poorly-recieved speech in Paris at the weekend, in which she seemed ill at ease delivering policy statements much further to the right than has been her political outlook previously.
- Odoxa poll: 1st Round: Macron (LREM): 24.5% (+0.5), Le Pen (RN): 18% (+1), Zemmour: 14% (+2), Pécresse (LR): 12% (-7), Mélenchon (LFI): 10% (+1). +/- vs. 7-9 Dec. Fieldwork: 15-16 Feb. 2022. Sample size: 1,357
- Pecresse's strategy of shifting to the right appears to be backfiring. With two far-right candidates already in the contest in the form of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen and TV polemicist Eric Zemmour, those voters with right-wing views were already well-catered for. What Pecresse's hardline statements on immigrants and Islam have done, though, is alienated moderate centre-right voters who may have supported the LR candidate over the widely unpopular Macron.
- In second-round polling, incumbent Emmanuel Macron retains leads over all three likely opponents.
Chart 1. French Presidential Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Ifop-Fiducial, OpinionWay, Elabe, Odoxa, Harris Interactive, Cluster17, BVA, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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