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Pending Home Sales Only Lower In Three Months Of Last Twenty Years

US DATA
  • Pending home sales fell -4.6% M/M in October (cons. -5.3%) after a better than first thought -8.7% (initial -10.2%). Sales are down 37% Y/Y.
  • Since the series started in 2001, sales have only been lower in three months -- in mid-2010 after post-GFC stimulus encouraged a pulling forward of house sales and in Apr’20 under pandemic lockdown, with sales currently 7.5% above the latter.
  • The relationship continues to point to further declines in existing home sales ahead and even though new home sales have been holding up relatively better of late, they should continue to put downward pressure on construction.

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