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Personal Incomes Boosted By One-Offs But Disposable Incomes Keep To Prior Pace

US DATA
  • Nominal personal income growth was far stronger than expected in January at 1.0% M/M (cons 0.4) after 0.32%. Revisions were mostly offsetting: a slightly upward revised 0.32% in Dec (initial 0.26) followed downward revisions to Oct and Nov.
  • It was boosted by personal dividend income after January’s equity rally, a 3.2% cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients, and an increase in Affordable Care Act enrollments. Indeed, compensation of employees increased a more modest 0.40% M/M.
  • However, and notably, disposable income growth held at 0.33% M/M after 0.30% in Dec (revised up from 0.25) as a 6% start-of-year increase in current taxes weighed heavily.
  • As such, nominal spending growth was in line with expectations, easing to 0.23% M/M (cons 0.2) after a particularly strong 0.67% M/M.
  • This pullback in spending growth was amplified in real terms, with overall spending falling -0.11% M/M after +0.55% M/M, driven by a sharp dip in goods consumption (-1.1% after +0.9%) whilst services consumption maintained its pace of 0.35% after 0.37% M/M.
  • Against this backdrop, the household savings ratio increased a tenth to 3.8% but remains below the 4.0% averaged through Q4.

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