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Philly Fed Mfg Index Beats But Very Mixed Details

US DATA
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing outlook index did indeed bounce more than expected in May to -10.4 (cons -20.0) from -31.3 as it continues a trend of sizeable divergence to the Empire survey which slumped on Monday [see chart].
  • Stronger: new orders bounced from -22.7 to -8.9, shipments less so from -7.3 to -4.7.
  • Weaker: the overall six-month ahead index fell from -1.5 to -10.3 (aside from -13.2 in Oct weakest since 2008) and employment fell from -0.2 to -8.6 (aside from the -10.3 in March is the lowest since the pandemic and before that 2016).
  • Compressed margins: prices paid firmed slightly off a three-year low from 8.2 to 10.9 but prices received index fell from -3.3 to -7.0 for the lowest since Apr’20.

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