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Eurodollars Weaker With CPI And 2023 Hikes Eyed

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • We've had multiple client questions about the sharp rise in implied rates on the Eurodollar strip at the open of trade in Europe.
    • The main driver is seen as the strong Chinese inflation data overnight which is rippling across global FI. Of course, US CPI is up later today, and some of the ED weakness may also be attributed to positioning ahead of the release.
    • Note that most weakness is in the Reds-Greens contracts from Mar23 to Mar24, which fell as much as 7 ticks.
    • With shorter-term implied rates relatively anchored on the strip (out through 2022), some desks are speculating that this is targeting a delayed rise in rates vs the typical H2 2022 liftoff narrative, with the Fed reluctant to tighten policy going into the November 2022 midterm elections.
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