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Underperforms in EGBs


Yld Curves Extend Steeper

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  • Polish State Development Fund President (PFR) Pawel Borys mentioned in a conference yesterday that some 80% to 90% of the Polish economy has exited the economic crisis and that GDP growth likely to top 5% in the next 2 to 3 years. The rebound, which he estimates may be the fastest one since WWI, is likely to generate overheating risks in the short to medium term.
  • After mentioning that a rate hike may be needed in late 2021 / early 2022 in an interview on TOK FM radio earlier this week, it seems that the tone Borys changed drastically in yesterday's speech as Borys says that NBP should start to normalize monetary policy (which implies a rate hike in the coming meetings).
  • Governor Glapinski will speak at a press conference today at 2pm (London time); we could see some price action depending on the tone of the speech.
  • USDPLN has been trading sideways in the past two weeks within a tight range between 3.64 and 3.70; resistance to watch on the topside stands at 3.75%. On the downside, first support stands at 3.62.
  • Poland 10Y yield has been retracing sharply lower in the past week, gradually approaching its 50D SMA at 1.71%; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 1.65%. On the topside, key resistance stands at 2%.