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PLN May Face Sharp Consolidation if NBP Keeps Dovish Stance

POLAND
  • In the past few months, the significant rise in inflation has increased disagreements over the trajectory of short term rates; while some policymakers are concerned that the inflationary pressures will remain elevated in 2022 and are pushing for a first 15bps hike this summer (Hardt), other policymakers (i.e. Governor Glapinski) aim to keep interest rates low for the rest of the year to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economic recovery.
  • Next policy meeting is on June 9; market could start to take profit on PLN following the sharp appreciation we have seen in the past two months if participants realize that NBP will let inflation run hot in H2.
  • USDPLN has been consolidating higher in the past few days and is currently testing its 3.70 resistance; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 3.77. On the downside, first support stands at 3.62.
  • Poland 10Y yield continues to retrace lower, gradually approaching its 1.80% support; next level to watch on the downside stands at 1.72%. On the topside, key resistance remains at 2%.
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