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PLN Remains Strong as Market Prepares for NBP Early Move

POLAND
  • With Preliminary CPI surging to 4.8% in May, disagreements over the trajectory of ST rates between policymakers (and even members of the government recently) continue to rise; market participants are increasingly speculating that NBP will not be able to keep its benchmark rate (0.1%) steady until the end of Q1 2022 (when MPC terms end), which has been pushing PLN higher against major crosses.
  • In an TV interview on Tuesday, NBP policymaker Lukasz Hardt mentioned that he expects Polish inflation to remain elevated in 2022 and does not see inflation falling below the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band this year. As a result, he thinks that the MPC should consider a 15bps hike in June to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • On the other hand, government spokesperson Piotr Muller told on public radio earlier yesterday that CPI inflation may be elevated for a few months, but remains under control; he added that low borrowing costs are also seen as beneficial during periods of crisis.
  • There are no important economic data coming out today.
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