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PLN Takes Hit From EU Court Opinion, But HUF Is Worst CE3 Performer

CEE FX

The Hungarian Forint is the worst CE3 performer today in spite of the Polish Zloty coming under pressure from a pro-consumer legal opinion issued by top EU court's aide in a case on controversial FX loans. Czech headline flow has been subdued, offering little in the way of notable catalysts for CZK price action.

  • The HUF has extended the correction of its sharp rally seen earlier this week as NBH Gov Virag called for patience in reducing interest rates. Spot EUR/HUF has now returned above the psychological HUF380 figure.
  • The recent sell-off in PLN/HUF has been limited by the 23.6% retracement of the pair's 1994 - 2022 rally located at HUF79.03. A bounce off that level has been paralleled by a return of the RSI from oversold territory, which is a bullish signal.
  • PLN/CZK has traded on a heavier footing today, albeit firm support has been defined around the CZK4.95 mark. The rate printed new all-time lows at CZK4.9498 yesterday, with the CNB's FX stance providing continued backstop against Koruna depreciation.
  • The Zloty has taken a hit today as an advisor to the EU's top court issued a pro-consumer legal opinion, which may potentially set the stage for a ruling later this year that would impose massive costs on Poland's banking sector.
  • CZK/HUF has extended its move away from away from eight-month lows after its return above the HUF16 round figure. From a technical perspective, participants should keep an eye on the 50- & 200-DMAs amid potential for a "death cross."

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