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FRANCE: PM Faces Tough Task In Balancing Left & Right In 14 Jan Policy Speech

FRANCE
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Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is scheduled to deliver his discours de politique générale (general policy speech) in the National Assembly at 1500CET on Tuesday 14 January. This will mark the first time that he offers significant detail on his plans for gov't, and is being watched closely for signs of whether he will roll back some of the pension reforms pushed through by President Emmanuel Macron in 2023. 

  • Bayrou is in as vulnerable a position as his short-tenured predecessor Michel Barnier. There has been speculation in recent days that Bayrou could temporarily postpone the gradual raising of the retirement age to 64 in an effort to gain the support of the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) which could be critical in avoiding a successful censure motion. PS deputy Philippe Brun said on 10 Jan that “If François Bayrou refuses to suspend the pension reform, he won’t survive the next three weeks,”
  • However, in appeasing the centre-left Bayrou risks alienating the centre-right. Former presidential candidate for the conservative Les Republicains Valerie Pecresse warned on 13 Jan that should Bayrou roll back pension reforms "In these conditions especially, the right can no longer participate in this government,"
  • A vote on a confidence motion is likely on Thursday 16 Jan, whether called by Bayrou or the far-left La France Insoumise. Depending on the content and reception of Bayrou's speech the gov't could face an early ouster even before it can present a 2025 budget. 
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Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is scheduled to deliver his discours de politique générale (general policy speech) in the National Assembly at 1500CET on Tuesday 14 January. This will mark the first time that he offers significant detail on his plans for gov't, and is being watched closely for signs of whether he will roll back some of the pension reforms pushed through by President Emmanuel Macron in 2023. 

  • Bayrou is in as vulnerable a position as his short-tenured predecessor Michel Barnier. There has been speculation in recent days that Bayrou could temporarily postpone the gradual raising of the retirement age to 64 in an effort to gain the support of the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) which could be critical in avoiding a successful censure motion. PS deputy Philippe Brun said on 10 Jan that “If François Bayrou refuses to suspend the pension reform, he won’t survive the next three weeks,”
  • However, in appeasing the centre-left Bayrou risks alienating the centre-right. Former presidential candidate for the conservative Les Republicains Valerie Pecresse warned on 13 Jan that should Bayrou roll back pension reforms "In these conditions especially, the right can no longer participate in this government,"
  • A vote on a confidence motion is likely on Thursday 16 Jan, whether called by Bayrou or the far-left La France Insoumise. Depending on the content and reception of Bayrou's speech the gov't could face an early ouster even before it can present a 2025 budget.