PM Risks Row w/Wilders Over Ukraine Security Agreement

Dutch caretaker PM Mark Rutte has signed a 10-year security guarantee deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the frontline city of Kharkiv. The agreement includes EUR2bn in military aid in 2024, while the Netherlands has also pledged an additional EUR150mn to a Czech-led initiative to purchase ammunition for Ukraine's armed forces. While popular with the Netherlands' allies, it risks escalating political tensions domestically as parties continue to seek agreement on a new coalition gov't following the November 2023 general election.

• Geert Wilders, head of the largest party in parliament, the right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV), has criticised Rutte's decision to sign the agreement. As coalition negotiations have become more fraught, Wilders has moderated his stance on Ukraine. Previously he both opposed allowing Ukrainian refugees into the Netherlands and did not want to provide any more financial or military aid to Kyiv. Now he says that "The PVV supports Ukraine and is willing to talk about any type of aid,"
• However, he has criticised Rutte, arguing that the inking of such a long-term agreement is outside the purview of a caretaker administration.
• The formation of any stable gov't remains a distant prospect at present amid disagreements between the PVV and its potential coalition allies. A softer stance on Ukraine is seen as a prerequisite for either of the two more moderate parties (VVD and NSC) to support a Wilders-led gov't.