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PM Sanchez's PSOE Trail PP In Important Regional Election

SPAIN

Latest opinion polling ahead of the 19 June regional election in the autonomous community of Andalusia shows the centre-right People's Party (PP) maintaining a consistent lead over the centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE). This is despite the region, Spain's most populous, having long been a leftist stronghold.

  • EM Analytics poll (seat projection, 55 required for majority): PP: 36, PSOE: 33, VOX: 26 (-1), Por Andalucía: 6 (-1), AA: 5 (+2), Cs: 3. +/- vs. 6 Apr–12 May 2022. Fieldwork: 12-19 May 2022. Sample size: 4,059
  • KeyData/Publico poll (seat projection, 55 required for majority): PP: 46 (+2), PSOE: 33, VOX: 20, Por Andalucía: 8, AA: 2, Cs: 0 (-2). +/- vs.27 Apr 2022. Fieldwork: 19 May 2022.
  • Following the previous Andalusian election in 2018, the PP and centrist Citizens announced a confidence-and-supply agreement with the right-wing nationalist VOX, the first time the party had been invited to support a governing coalition. This led to a significant backlash from the left, but laid the path for VOX to be officially invited into gov't, as is the case in Castile and Leon following the February regional election where the PP and VOX govern together.
  • With polls indicating that another PP-VOX coalition is a likely outcome of the Andalusia election, the result could have the impact of further normalising VOX participation in gov't - having for years been on the outside with no parties willing to work alongside them.
  • The next general election is due in December 2023, and at present polls show the PP and VOX either just short or just over the level of support required to form a majority coalition.
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