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PMI Provides Only Scant Support for GBP/USD, as Sell-on-Rallies Theme Returns

GBP
  • GBP/USD's initial PMI-triggered run higher has all but reversed, with markets failing to maintain strength above the 50-dma - a level pierced, but not firmly broken on any corrective bounces off the February lows.
  • Recovery off lows for the USD (evident in EUR/USD fade) partially responsible, but GBP cross selling isolates the market's preference to fade GBP strength. GBP/CAD is back in negative territory, with 1.7031 the initial weak support ahead of a firmer level at 1.6976, the pre-CAD CPI low.
  • G10 currency futures volumes consistently ahead of average for this time of day, countering the much more muted market participation earlier in the week. GBP futures saw around 4k contracts trade around the release for a cash equivalent of £317mln - with markets remaining just as active on the fade off highs for GBP/USD, as it was on the initial run higher to 1.2709 in spot.
  • The Dec'24 SONIA fut now trades back to flat, erasing earlier losses of ~6 ticks pre-PMI data.
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