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Poland 3Q 24 Falls to 17-Day Low

POWER
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Poland’s front-quarter power contract moved down during Friday’s session to reach its lowest price since 30 April, shrugging off slight gains in the European emissions and coal markets.

  • Poland Q3 2024 Baseload power at PLN400/MWh – its last traded price – compared to its settled price of PLN404.99/MWh on 16 May, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE. This is the lowest price since 30 April when it settled at PLN386.50/MWh.
  • The contract opened at PLN409/MWh- the high for the day – before dropping as the trading session progressed.
  • The Q3 24 power contract has traded 20 times for 20MW, up from 14MW exchanged in the previous session.
  • API 2 Q3 24 up only 0.7% at $112.40/t
  • December 2024 EU ETS contract is up only 0.19% at €70.23/t CO2e.
  • Gains in power prices could be somewhat limited over the 3Q amid the government approving a cap on household electricity prices at PLN500/MWh from July until the end of this year. A PLN693/MWh cap for local governments, public utilities and small to medium companies will also be imposed.
  • Power demand could also be lower on the quarter as average temperatures in Warsaw are anticipated to rise from May – reaching as high as ~ 20C in July before falling slightly to ~ 15-18C over August-September, according to Bloomberg.
  • Poland’s 5.1GW Belchatow coal plant is still anticipated to be almost fully available over July, with only one 380MW unit off line over the entirety of that month. Limited plant maintenance is also expected over August-September, according to latest Remit data.
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Poland’s front-quarter power contract moved down during Friday’s session to reach its lowest price since 30 April, shrugging off slight gains in the European emissions and coal markets.

  • Poland Q3 2024 Baseload power at PLN400/MWh – its last traded price – compared to its settled price of PLN404.99/MWh on 16 May, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE. This is the lowest price since 30 April when it settled at PLN386.50/MWh.
  • The contract opened at PLN409/MWh- the high for the day – before dropping as the trading session progressed.
  • The Q3 24 power contract has traded 20 times for 20MW, up from 14MW exchanged in the previous session.
  • API 2 Q3 24 up only 0.7% at $112.40/t
  • December 2024 EU ETS contract is up only 0.19% at €70.23/t CO2e.
  • Gains in power prices could be somewhat limited over the 3Q amid the government approving a cap on household electricity prices at PLN500/MWh from July until the end of this year. A PLN693/MWh cap for local governments, public utilities and small to medium companies will also be imposed.
  • Power demand could also be lower on the quarter as average temperatures in Warsaw are anticipated to rise from May – reaching as high as ~ 20C in July before falling slightly to ~ 15-18C over August-September, according to Bloomberg.
  • Poland’s 5.1GW Belchatow coal plant is still anticipated to be almost fully available over July, with only one 380MW unit off line over the entirety of that month. Limited plant maintenance is also expected over August-September, according to latest Remit data.