Police Hunt Puigdemont, Arrest Could Pose Risks To Madrid Gov't Stability

A major police blockadehas been set up in Barcelona, intended to catch former Catalan regional president Carles Puigdemont. The leader of the pro-independence Junts, Puidgemont is in Spain for the first time since 2017 when he entered self-imposed exile after an arrest warrant was issued against him and others following the illegal Catalan independence referendum of that year.

• Earlier this morning Puidgemont spoke to supporters close to the Catalan parliament ahead of the investiture vote of pro-union PSC leader Salvador Illa as regional president. He was not seen after the speech and did not try to enter the parliament, with the prospect that he was attempting to flee justice.
• Should Puigdemont be arrested it could have implications not only for Catalan politics but Spain's broader fiscal outlook. The gov't has already rolled overthe 2023 budget to 2024 amid lengthy efforts to form a gov't and the Catalan regional election in the spring. This could have to happen again, with Junts already votingagainst the gov't in the early stages of the process to enact a 2025 budget in July. Rolling over the budget could avoid confidence votes or Sanchez calling an early election.
• Nevertheless, given that Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez's minority leftist gov't relies on Junts for a majority, the arrest of Puidgemont would likely prove inflammatory to Catalan separatists, risking them withdrawing support entirely. This could significantly hamper the gov't's ability to enact legislation.