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Polish Assets Catch Bid On Expected Election Outcome, Core CPI On Tap

POLAND
  • Polish assets received a boost after exit polls showed that pro-EU opposition parties were on track to win a majority of seats in parliament as a record number of Poles turned up to vote. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party remains the front-runner but is unlikely to secure enough seats to return to power, with the pro-EU bloc projected to win a comfortable majority of 248 seats. The projected results come as a major setback for the incumbents, but also for the far-right Confederation, who were counting on becoming the third-largest parliamentary party and a kingmaker. PiS have not conceded the election, with various representatives suggesting that they are open to negotiate with other parties.
  • The zloty added 1.8% versus the euro, before reducing gains to 1.3%. The WIG20 Index gapped higher at the re-open and last sits 2.8% above neutral levels. Polish assets have been supported by expectations that a pro-EU government could reopen negotiations with Brussels and secure access to frozen EU funding.
  • Once the official results are out (possibly as late as on Tuesday), President Andrzej Duda will nominate a candidate for Prime Minister, who will need to secure the backing of a majority of lawmakers. Failing that, lawmakers will nominate an alternative candidate.
  • As mentioned in our Election Preview, over the medium to longer term, challenges abound for a potential coalition government of pro-EU parties. They will face institutions populated by the nominees of the outgoing administration, including the veto-wielding Presidential Palace and the Constitutional Tribunal.
  • The NBP will release core CPI data for September at 13:00BST/14:00CEST. Inflation ex-food and energy prices may have slowed to +8.6% Y/Y last month from +10.0% prior.
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