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Politico-Philippe Sees Macron As Vulnerable, Pres' Allies Hit Back

FRANCE
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Politico reports that former PM Edouard Philippe, who on 3 September announced his intention to run for the presidency at the next election (see 'FRANCE: Amid Political Inertia, Fmr PM Philippe Confirms Presidential Ambitions', 1221BST), is already looking to set the stage for his campaign with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in a vulnerable position. Politico: "...it’s clear that Philippe[...] thinks his former boss won’t survive much longer and is prepared to make it known. He has already tasked his party Horizons to “be ready for spring” in 2025, according to top party leadership contacted by Playbook Paris. “He considers that everything can move,” someone close to Philippe said."

  • Relations between Macron and his former PM were already in a relatively poor state following the snap parliamentary election that engendered the current political impasse. Macron loyalists now see Philippe's announcement as the starting gun for an attempted political coup. Politico: "Outgoing Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin was reportedly “furious” with Philippe, according to one of Darmanin’s advisers.“Macron will have one single objective now, that will be to atomize Philippe,”.
  • Macron will have little chance to focus on Philippe's manoeuvres, even if a gov't is formed in the coming days. The new administration will need to submit a 2025 budget to parliament by 1 October, and to be on the statute books by 1 January. With France under an excessive deficit procedure, there will be a focus on constraining gov't spending and boosting revenues, risking further political rancour.
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Politico reports that former PM Edouard Philippe, who on 3 September announced his intention to run for the presidency at the next election (see 'FRANCE: Amid Political Inertia, Fmr PM Philippe Confirms Presidential Ambitions', 1221BST), is already looking to set the stage for his campaign with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in a vulnerable position. Politico: "...it’s clear that Philippe[...] thinks his former boss won’t survive much longer and is prepared to make it known. He has already tasked his party Horizons to “be ready for spring” in 2025, according to top party leadership contacted by Playbook Paris. “He considers that everything can move,” someone close to Philippe said."

  • Relations between Macron and his former PM were already in a relatively poor state following the snap parliamentary election that engendered the current political impasse. Macron loyalists now see Philippe's announcement as the starting gun for an attempted political coup. Politico: "Outgoing Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin was reportedly “furious” with Philippe, according to one of Darmanin’s advisers.“Macron will have one single objective now, that will be to atomize Philippe,”.
  • Macron will have little chance to focus on Philippe's manoeuvres, even if a gov't is formed in the coming days. The new administration will need to submit a 2025 budget to parliament by 1 October, and to be on the statute books by 1 January. With France under an excessive deficit procedure, there will be a focus on constraining gov't spending and boosting revenues, risking further political rancour.