Poor Local Election Performance Could Stymie PM's Policy Agenda

On Sunday 9 April assembly elections take place in 41 prefectures and 17 major cities, as well as gubernatorial polls in nine prefectures and mayoral races in six major cities. Opinion polls show low approval ratings for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). A poor set of results in the elections could limit Kishida's ability to enact some of his more large-scale or controversial policies, including the plan to double Japan's defence expenditure or to amend the pacifist constitution to allow for a standing army.

• Morning Consult's polling shows an uptick in Kishida's approval in recent weeks, "as inflation has receded and consumer confidence has improved slightly alongside Kishida’s Ukraine visit, but the risk to Kishida and the LDP remains." At end-March, Kishida's approval stood at 29.0%, up from a low of 19.7% on 4 Feb, but well down from a peak of 50.2% in Jan 2022.
• Morning Consult: "Kishida’s recently waning support among LDP adherents could leave him open to a challenger from within his own party, with a leadership election looming in fall 2024. As of now, however, there does not appear to be an internal candidate with enough strength to challenge him. A poor LDP showing in April’s local elections could change potential rivals’ calculi."