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Positive Reaction to Jobs Data, Powell Policy Testimony

US TSYS
  • Tsy futures hold narrow range since climbing to session highs at noon. Tsys pared early shorts following marginally lower than expected ADP at 140k (cons 150k) after a modestly upward revised 111k in Jan (initial 107k).
  • Support for Treasury futures has gained traction as markets continue to digest text of Fed Chairman Powell's testimony to congress (as well as down-revision to the prior JOLTS job openings from 9.026M to 8.889M), focus on cutting interest rates "at some point this year" but not until it becomes more confident that inflation will keep falling.
  • Little if any reaction to Fed Beige Book release: "Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening.”
  • Rates pared late gains in reaction to headlines that NYCB has raised more than $1B in equity from "LIBERTY STRATEGIC, HUDSON BAY, REVERENCE" Bbg.
  • Jun'24 10Y futures are currently at 111-14 (+4.5) after breaching resistance on way to 111-23 high at noon. Next resistance level at 111-27 50% (retracement of the Feb 1 - 23 bear leg). Curves flatter, 2s10s -4.468 at -45.218; 10Y yield at 4.1098 -.0428 vs. 4.0768% low.
  • Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Unit Labor Cost, and day two of Chairman Powell's testimony.
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