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Positive Surprise For Retail Sales But Tepid Trend

CANADA
  • Nominal retail sales were better than expected up to Aug (+0.7% M/M vs +0.2), coming in both stronger than expected and with a smaller hit in July (-2.2 from -2.5), but the -0.5 flash for Sept suggests continued weakness ahead.
  • Volumes bounced back with +1.1% M/M in Aug but it follows July’s -1.9%, leaving the 3M/3M trend slightly contractionary in a notable pullback from a strong Q2.
  • The release does little to change the latest leg higher in USDCAD shortly before the release to the 1.383-385 range whilst 2Y GoCs sold off 2.5bps before limiting this closer to +1bp for unchanged on the day.

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