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The latest opinion polling trends in Germany ahead of the September federal election shows the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) retaining a sizeable lead over all other parties, although the gap between the CDU/CSU and the chasing pack narrowed slightly in the latter half of July (see chart below).

Chart 1. Germany Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: INSA, Forsa, FGW, Civey, Ipsos, GMS, Kantar, YouGov, Infratest dimap, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll.

  • Latest polls:
    • Ipsos federal election poll: CDU-CSU: 27% (-1), Green: 20% (-1), SPD: 18% (+3), AfD: 11% (+1), FDP: 10% (-1), Die Linke: 7% (-1). Ipsos, 31/07/21. Chgs w/ 21-27 June. 2,002 respondents.
    • INSA federal election poll: CDU-CSU: 27.5% (+0.5), Green: 18%, SPD: 18% (+1), FDP: 13%, AfD: 11% (+1), Die Linke: 7% (+1). INSA 30 Jul-2 Aug. Chgs w/ 26-30 Jul. 2,080 respondents.
  • Based on present polls, dawum.de has the following potential coalition options as likely outcomes from the election:
Chart 2. Post-Election Governing Coalitions (Possible Coalitions on First Row, Short of Majority on Second)

Source: Dawum.de, MNI

  • The rising support for the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and liberal pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) have eaten into the combined support for the CDU/CSU and Greens, giving them just 50.5% of the combined vote and a very narrow majority.
  • A small shift in voter support from current levels could eliminate the possibility of a two-party coalition gov't, requiring (for the first time in modern German history) a three-party federal coalition.