Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
The latest opinion polling trends in Germany ahead of the September federal election shows the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) retaining a sizeable lead over all other parties, although the gap between the CDU/CSU and the chasing pack narrowed slightly in the latter half of July (see chart below).
Chart 1. Germany Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: INSA, Forsa, FGW, Civey, Ipsos, GMS, Kantar, YouGov, Infratest dimap, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll.
- Latest polls:
- Ipsos federal election poll: CDU-CSU: 27% (-1), Green: 20% (-1), SPD: 18% (+3), AfD: 11% (+1), FDP: 10% (-1), Die Linke: 7% (-1). Ipsos, 31/07/21. Chgs w/ 21-27 June. 2,002 respondents.
- INSA federal election poll: CDU-CSU: 27.5% (+0.5), Green: 18%, SPD: 18% (+1), FDP: 13%, AfD: 11% (+1), Die Linke: 7% (+1). INSA 30 Jul-2 Aug. Chgs w/ 26-30 Jul. 2,080 respondents.
- Based on present polls, dawum.de has the following potential coalition options as likely outcomes from the election:
Chart 2. Post-Election Governing Coalitions (Possible Coalitions on First Row, Short of Majority on Second)
Source: Dawum.de, MNI
- The rising support for the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and liberal pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) have eaten into the combined support for the CDU/CSU and Greens, giving them just 50.5% of the combined vote and a very narrow majority.
- A small shift in voter support from current levels could eliminate the possibility of a two-party coalition gov't, requiring (for the first time in modern German history) a three-party federal coalition.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok