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Post-FOMC Minutes Rebound Gaining Momentum

US TSYS
Still mildly weaker, Treasury futures continue to climb off midday lows as markets digest the May FOMC minutes.
  • "Many participants focused on the need to retain optionality after this meeting," the FOMC meeting minutes said. "Some participants commented that, based on their expectations that progress in returning inflation to 2% could continue to be unacceptably slow, additional policy firming would likely be warranted at future meetings," the minutes said.
  • At the moment, 10Y futures are trading -3.5 at 113-16, well off early session high of 113-25 before debt ceiling headlines buffeted rates. From a technical perspective, TYM3 break of 113-30+ last week, the Apr 19 low and a key support, has reinforced a bearish theme. Tuesday’s move lower opens 112-30 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 113-30+ ahead of the 50-day EMA, at 114-23+. A break of the average is required to signal a potential reversal.
  • Markets still have Fed Gov Waller comments to digest as well after remarking the lack of progress bringing down inflation means it’s too soon for Federal Reserve officials to stop raising interest rates, although tighter credit conditions could alter that calculus.
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