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Post-LIBOR Settle Update, 3M

US EURODLR FUTURES

Lead quarterly EDH2 holding steady to mildly weaker at 99.41 (-0.005) after latest 3M LIBOR set' surged +0.01743 higher to 0.39486% -- highest lvl since May 13, 2020, now up +0.05586 for the week.

  • Lead quarterly reluctant to price in more than appr 50% chance of 50bp hike at the next FOMC on March 16, even as 3M interbank lending benchmark continues to surge higher.
  • Markets eager to see Jan CPI inflation data (0.4% est vs. 0.6% rev) this morning, a hot number will weigh on the front end as 50bp hike in March becomes more realistic.
  • Out the strip: futures trading mixed in Whites (EDH2-EDZ2, +/-0.005), Reds outperforming (EDH3-EDZ3, +0.005-0.015) while Golds (EDH6-EDZ6) hold steady.
  • Policy uncertainty/inflection point remains Green Dec'24 (97.845), inversion extends vs. Blues-Golds by 0.010-0.020.
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