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Post-Payrolls Twist Flattening With A Light Docket Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a twist flattening as the front-end gently cheapens in only limited retracement of Friday’s post-payrolls rally, with the pivot from 5Y onwards. The main driver remains Chinse health officials pointing to commitment to the zero-Covid system over the weekend.
  • The combination sees 2s10s flatten 5bps to -54.5bp, unwinding half the post-payrolls steepening as it remains off the low of -61bp shortly beforehand.
  • 2YY +1.7bps at 4.676%, 5YY -0.7bps at 4.324%, 10YY -2.9bps at 4.129%, and 30YY -3.5bps at 4.212%.
  • TYZ2 trades just 1+ tick higher at 110-03 on low volumes and with the primary trend direction remaining down. It’s within Friday’s range, the low of which forms initial support at 109-10+ (Nov 4 low) whilst resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA of 110-29).
  • Fedspeak: Collins & Mester (1540ET), Barkin on inflation (1800ET)
  • Data: Consumer credit (1500ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $57B 13W, $45B 26W auctions (1130ET)
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