Potential Pivot From Feb 1 FOMC Pivot?

Heavy session volumes (TYH3>1.8M) as rates extend past midmorning lows (30YY 3.9262% high) as StL Fed Bullard puts his thumb on the scale stating he wouldn't rule out a move back to 50bps hike at the March 22 FOMC. Yield curves hold onto steeper levels, however, 2s10s +5.338 at -78.306. Reminder, Cleveland Fed Mester speaks about her economic outlook later this evening (1815ET).

• Tsy had gapped lower earlier as PPI (+0.7%, ex-food/energy +0.5%) and Jobless (194K) both indicated strength and inflation, while Philly Fed at -24.3 has only been lower in covid spike and the global financial crisis.
• The sell-off accelerated on comments from Fed Mester that rates need to rise above 5% and stay there for some time, warning inflation risks are still tilted to the upside and the cost of prematurely loosening policy outweighs the cost of doing too much. Mester "SAW A 'COMPELLING' CASE FOR 50 BPS HIKE AT LAST FOMC MEETING .. adding the "FED CAN ACCELERATE PACE OF HIKES IF CONDITIONS WARRANT" Bbg.
• Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 +2.1 at 28.2bp, May'23 cumulative +3.2 at 49.2bp to 5.073%, Jun'23 +3.4 at 63.4bp to 5.215%, terminal at 5.26% in Aug'23.
• Heavy session volumes before noon included several steepener (flattener unwind) blocks (5s/ultra-30s, 2s5s, 10s/ultra-30s) while the roll from Mar'23 to Jun'23 Tsy futures has begun.