### POV: ALL ABOUT THE LABOUR MARKET - The......>

RBA: ### POV: ALL ABOUT THE LABOUR MARKET

- The RBA's labour mkt view & the fact that it is key for MonPol has been

covered in detail. Barring a large -ve surprise today's labour mkt data is

unlikely to result in a knee jerk reaction from the RBA in June, but the ST

trend will be under heavy scrutiny from both mkt participants & those sitting in

65 Martin Place. OIS price a 25bp cut by the end of the Bank's Aug meeting.

- Soft data suggest that the labour mkt is cooling, with many already

questioning the underlying view the RBA holds. SEEK & ANZ vacancies have pulled

back from highs, although the latest SEEK survey indicates that avg. advertised

salaries rose by 4.1% Y/Y in April, a much healthier pace than the 2.3% Y/Y seen

in the off'l Q1 wage price index. The quarterly ABS vacancies data sits at a

historical high, but skilled vacancies have pulled back from their recent peak.

- The latest NAB Business Survey saw NAB highlight a "sharp 7pt decline in the

employment index to -1pt, the first negative print since early 2016. Alongside

declining job ads, these data suggest labour market conditions have turned,

adding to the downside risk to the RBA's optimistic outlook for unemployment."