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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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EU: ###POV: EUROPEAN MARKETS OVERLY COMPLACENT ON CATALAN RISK.
- Despite volumes and volatility falling ahead of Christmas, there remains
significant event risk in Thursday's Catalan elections, which are expected to
result in a hung parliament. Metroscopia polling last week predicts unity
parties gaining 62 seats and pro-independence parties gaining 63, meaning both
factions would be short of a majority (68 seats). However, polling momentum is
in pro-independence parties' favour and the likelihood of a separatist majority
is now seen at approximately 50%.
- Both Spanish bonds and the Euro have traded well: the 10yr SP/GE yield spread
has tightened by circa 20bps since October and the EUR's done very little.
- While a unilateral bid for independence is becoming more unlikely, Madrid are
likely to receive onerous reform terms and autonomy demands, prompting domestic
political instability and, potentially, further political & fiscal fragmentation
in Spain. This may result in higher government bond yields and more pressure on
the EUR. Results are due a few hours after polling closes at 1900GMT, with final
results expected by 2200GMT.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.