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SOUTH AFRICA: ### POV: MARKET PRICING IN SMOOTH SAILING FOR ANC AT TOMORROW'S
-Ramaphosa's ANC are expected to take victory for a 6th parliament with 55-60%
of the vote. The ANC's share of polling has waned, but remains firm enough for
markets to take confidence in a smooth transition from this government to the
-Land reform, the electricity grid and general economic policy remain the most
market-relevant aspects and analysts generally see a stronger turnout for the
ANC feeding ZAR strength. An economy-positive subsequent cabinet reshuffle
should see further downside for USD/ZAR. Conversely, a weak victory for the ANC
of around 50% vote share would see the party's ability to push through reform
curtailed, denting ZAR sentiment and putting 15.00 back on the cards.
-Implied vols remain relatively sanguine, with the uptick in 1w tenor ahead of
the vote well within recent ranges and markedly below the year's highs of 23
points. Polling closes at 2100 local time and (as in 2014) the bulk of the
results should be known early Thursday.