### POV: MARKET PRICING IN SMOOTH......>

SOUTH AFRICA: ### POV: MARKET PRICING IN SMOOTH SAILING FOR ANC AT TOMORROW'S

ELECTION

-Ramaphosa's ANC are expected to take victory for a 6th parliament with 55-60%

of the vote. The ANC's share of polling has waned, but remains firm enough for

markets to take confidence in a smooth transition from this government to the

next.

-Land reform, the electricity grid and general economic policy remain the most

market-relevant aspects and analysts generally see a stronger turnout for the

ANC feeding ZAR strength. An economy-positive subsequent cabinet reshuffle

should see further downside for USD/ZAR. Conversely, a weak victory for the ANC

of around 50% vote share would see the party's ability to push through reform

curtailed, denting ZAR sentiment and putting 15.00 back on the cards.

-Implied vols remain relatively sanguine, with the uptick in 1w tenor ahead of

the vote well within recent ranges and markedly below the year's highs of 23

points. Polling closes at 2100 local time and (as in 2014) the bulk of the

results should be known early Thursday.