POV: NOWHERE TO GO AT PEAK OF THE.......>

NORGES BANK: POV: NOWHERE TO GO AT PEAK OF THE CYCLE

-Following what was likely a difficult decision to hike rates in September, the

Bank are seen holding rates at 1.50%. There will be no Monetary Policy Report,

new forecasting or press conference, making no change more likely. The

over-arching question is whether the Bank have reached the peak of their

tightening cycle - the September projections certainly suggest so. Data and

material changes key downside risks (Brexit and the US/China trade spat) have

progressed little, leaving the Bank with little to contemplate this month.

-Hawkish risk: In the accompanying statement, the Bank flag the risks from a

materially weaker NOK, which could hamper the transmission mechanism and place

upside pressure on projections going forward. It's unlikely this will feature

this month, with the bank more likely to wait until December's fresh round of

forecasting.

-Dovish risk: It's unlikely the statement will shift outright dovish, but an

escalation of language surrounding downside risks could place downside pressure

on rate expectations.