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Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
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RBNZ: ###POV - RBNZ EXPECTED TO STAND PAT
- The RBNZ is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 1.75%, with
focus on the statement for any hints of changing outlook.
- RBNZ's annual statement of intent (Jun13) said monetary policy will remain
accommodative for a considerable period, adding despite the exchange rate
declining in 2017 it remains at elevated levels.
- The TWI is also only slightly below its Q2 forecast, further enforcing no
- Hawkish Risk: NZDUSD holds close to the YTD low and with a market extremely
short, according to the CFTC positioning data, the risk to traders of anything
seen slightly hawkish could see an aggressive short squeeze.
- Neutral: The RBNZ make no firm indication of timing for the next move, but
highlight direction will depend on how the economy evolves.
- Dovish Risk: A weakening labour market amid stumbling growth could test the
RBNZ's patience, putting an official cut back on the table.