###POV - RBNZ EXPECTED TO STAND PAT - The......>

RBNZ: ###POV - RBNZ EXPECTED TO STAND PAT

- The RBNZ is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 1.75%, with

focus on the statement for any hints of changing outlook.

- RBNZ's annual statement of intent (Jun13) said monetary policy will remain

accommodative for a considerable period, adding despite the exchange rate

declining in 2017 it remains at elevated levels.

- The TWI is also only slightly below its Q2 forecast, further enforcing no

change.

- Hawkish Risk: NZDUSD holds close to the YTD low and with a market extremely

short, according to the CFTC positioning data, the risk to traders of anything

seen slightly hawkish could see an aggressive short squeeze.

- Neutral: The RBNZ make no firm indication of timing for the next move, but

highlight direction will depend on how the economy evolves.

- Dovish Risk: A weakening labour market amid stumbling growth could test the

RBNZ's patience, putting an official cut back on the table.