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BUNDS

Block trade

UK DATA

UK Mortgage Borrowing At Record High

FOREX

FX OPTION EXPIRY (updated)

USD

Selling continuation into the USD

### POV, Words matter, and.......>

US EURODLR FUTURES
US EURODLR FUTURES: ### POV, Words matter, and that is what Federal Reserve
chairman Janet Yellen is counting on it as she is scheduled to appear at this
week's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium that starts Friday (schedule for
event available Thursday night). What are the chances the Fed chair will reveal
something substantive about policy at the event? Slim to none and Slim left
town. Instead, the Fed chairman and a majority of Fed presidents will most
likely continue to speak in hawkish terms, (ironically) ignoring consistently
lagging inflation figures. Some newswires have been parroting this theme of late
(such as Telegraph on Monday). On the flipside, Bloomberg called Monday's
decline of front end Eurodollar futures open interest as "capitulation" in the
face of declining hike probability. But a few savvy option desks have been
building upside call positions to take advantage of a pause in rate hikes (or a
drop in OIS) through year-end for weeks now. Latest rate hike probability for
Sep 20 and Nov 1 FOMC meetings has effectively dropped to 0.0%, while chance for
a hike at the December 13 FOMC hold at 31.6%. Who's right, the Fed or market
pricing? Mkts likely to be disappointed if they hope for an answer Fri.
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 | bill.sokolis@marketnews.com