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Powell On Credit Tightening & Further Hikes

FED
  • Q: In March you mentioned credit tightening could be equal to 1 or more rate increases, has that changed?
  • A: I followed that up by saying it's impossible to have a precise estimate, but in principle that's the idea. We've been raising rates and that raises the price of credit and restricts credit, and when banks raise their credit standards that also tightens. It isn't possible to cleanly translate between one and the other although we're trying that.
  • It complicates the task of achieving a restrictive stance. But conceptually, we think that interest rates, in principle we won't have to raise rates quite as high as we would have if this had not happened. The extent of that is so hard to predict. We don't know how large and how long they will take to be transmitted. That's what we will be watching carefully to find out.
  • There's a lot of data on lending and we'll factor that into our decision making.

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