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Powell Seen Pushing Back Against Looser Financial Conditions Post-CPI (2/2)

FED
Some more analyst expectations for Powell's appearance today:
  • UBS: "Powell seems likely to continue to characterize the labor market as strong and inflation as unacceptably high... expect the Chair to note the time has come to slow the pace of rate hikes...while he may not get ahead of his Committee with a definitive statement, we expect he will leave the impression that a 50 bp rate hike is all but assured" in Dec.
  • ING: Expect him to push back against the loosening of financial conditions post-CPI report. "Where this phase is different is that the Fed is having a harder time delivering its hawkish message as it signalled in no uncertain terms that the pace of hikes will soon reduce from 75bp to 50bp per meeting.... the burden of the proof is on those calling for another 75bp hike. Still, the 50bp drop in nominal 10Y Treasury yields, and 26bp in real yields, is a headache for the Fed...we think the market is vulnerable to a sell-off around Powell’s speech. If Powell is successful in delivering his hawkish message, the 5Y point on the curve should retrace its recent outperformance."
  • TD: Powell "will likely push back against the dovish market reaction and make clear that the Fed is nowhere near finished tightening its policy stance."
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