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POWER: France October Drops on Strong Wind, Hydro Balance

POWER
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French October has dropped lower from the previous session amid strong wind forecasts and a higher hydro balance, with the contract resisting price increases in gas and emission. However, unplanned extensions at nuclear units have occurred, albeit the units are anticipated to return before the beginning of Oct.

  • France Base Power OCT 24 down 0.9% at 57.4 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 63.86 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.6% at 35.35 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 73% as of Monday morning, unchanged compared to Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.5GW Chooz 2 and 1.3GW Paluel 4 reactors have had their works extended by 5-4 days, respectively, with the units back online on 30 Sept.
  • But the 915MW Cruas 1 has had work brought forward by 10 days and will now return on 23 Sept.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised up throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts, with the balance ending at +5.26TWh on 7 Oct compared to +5.03TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures will still drop from 26 Sept – flipping below the norm – to be between 10.7-13.7C over 27-29 Sept. Temperatures will then slightly rebound before dropping back below on 2 Oct.
  • Power demand in France is forecast at 44.2GW on 24 Sept, up from 43GW on 23 Sept, with demand remaining firm at 44GW on 25 Sept.
  • In France, wind output is forecast at 5.86GW on 24 Sept, up from 4.63GW today – likely weighing on delivery costs. Wind on 30 Sept-1 Oct is anticipated between 9.6-13.6GW, ECMWF Shows. 
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French October has dropped lower from the previous session amid strong wind forecasts and a higher hydro balance, with the contract resisting price increases in gas and emission. However, unplanned extensions at nuclear units have occurred, albeit the units are anticipated to return before the beginning of Oct.

  • France Base Power OCT 24 down 0.9% at 57.4 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 63.86 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.6% at 35.35 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 73% as of Monday morning, unchanged compared to Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.5GW Chooz 2 and 1.3GW Paluel 4 reactors have had their works extended by 5-4 days, respectively, with the units back online on 30 Sept.
  • But the 915MW Cruas 1 has had work brought forward by 10 days and will now return on 23 Sept.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised up throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts, with the balance ending at +5.26TWh on 7 Oct compared to +5.03TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures will still drop from 26 Sept – flipping below the norm – to be between 10.7-13.7C over 27-29 Sept. Temperatures will then slightly rebound before dropping back below on 2 Oct.
  • Power demand in France is forecast at 44.2GW on 24 Sept, up from 43GW on 23 Sept, with demand remaining firm at 44GW on 25 Sept.
  • In France, wind output is forecast at 5.86GW on 24 Sept, up from 4.63GW today – likely weighing on delivery costs. Wind on 30 Sept-1 Oct is anticipated between 9.6-13.6GW, ECMWF Shows.