POWER: French-German Day-Ahead Discount Narrows to 3-Session Low

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose on the day, with French gaining faster amid forecasts of reduced wind output, while lower load factors are also anticipated than Germany – narrowing the FR-DE discount.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €95.92/MWh from €90.90/MWh on the previous day.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €89.40/MWh from €69.52/MWh on the previous day.
• FR-DE discount was at €6.12/MWh from a €21.38/MWh discount in the previous session.
• German wind is expected at 7.70GW, or a 12% load factor on 28 August and is expected to drop slightly to a 9% load factor, or 5.95GW the next day  – opening the door to the possibility of higher power prices on the day.
• German power demand over 28-31 August has been revised up, with the highest revision seen on 30 August at +338MW. Demand is expected between 44.6-52.7GW over the period.
• In France, wind forecast points to output at 2.19GW, or a 11% load factor on 24 August and will remain firm at a 10% load factor the next day – which could keep the FR-DE discount strong, coupled with stable nuclear availability.
• French nuclear availability was unchanged on the day at 72% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• EdF’s 910MW Gravelines 4 and Bugey 3 reactors are still anticipated to return on 31 August and 1 September, respectively.