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POWER: German Front-Month Edges Higher on Gas

POWER

German front-month power base load is edging higher today with small gains in European natural gas prices and carbon allowances. German spot power is likely to increase on the day with forecasts pointing to lower renewables output.

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 0.5% at 84.79 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.3% at 66.7 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 0.8% at 37.65 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month ticks higher amid LNG supply concern as Tropical Storm Francine heads towards the US Gulf Coast where it is expected to make landfall on Wednesday in Louisiana as a category 2 hurricane. Pipeline gas supplies cuts from Norway and Algeria and colder weather in NW Europe this week are also supportive.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging higher today with gains in natural gas prices. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall on the day to 18.53GW during baseload on Thursday, down from 23.39GW forecasted for Tuesday. Solar PV output is also forecast to fall to 11.5GW during peakload, compared with 17.22GW forecasted for Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested mean temperatures to fall below normal from 10-17 September, before rising slightly above normal.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 64.72GW on Tuesday and of 64.73GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.

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