Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The election campaign for Spain's richest region - the capital, Madrid - got underway yesterday, with opinion polls showing the incumbent centre-right People's Party (PP) set to win a resounding plurality on 4 May. However, it is unclear whether the PP, under regional president Isabel Diaz Ayuso, will be able to win an overall majority of seats in the Assembly. If her party falls short of the 69 seats required, it may be forced into coalition with the right-wing nationalist VOX party to keep hold of power.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling for Madrilenian Regional Election, % and Trendline
Source: GAD3, NC Report, Sigma Dos, Hamalgama Metrica, SocioMetrica, ElectoPanel, GESOP, Celeste-Tel, SyM Consulting, Invymark, DYM, MNI
- There is a strong prospect that the centrist Citizens (C's) fall short of the 5% electoral threshold required to win seats in the Assembly, meaning that the alternative to a PP majority gov't or PP-VOX coalition would be a broad leftist coalition involving the centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), the leftist green Mas Madrid, and the left-wing Unidas Podemos (UP).
- The PP has held power in Madrid since 1995, so the centre-right losing power would be a major electoral shock and could cost national PP leader Pablo Casado his position.
- The election offers a major divergence in potential regional policy.
- Regional President Ayuso has been one of the loudest voices in national politics opposing strict COVID-19 restrictions, arguing that the election is a choice between 'freedom and communism'.
- On the other side of the debate, Mas Madrid candidate Monica Garcia is a doctor who worked in ICU wards during the pandemic and has called for tighter restrictions due to Madrid's high COVID-19 infection levels in comparison to the rest of the country.
- UP national leader Pablo Iglesias has also opened himself up to a potential major embarrassment. He stepped down as Spain's deputy PM to get involved in the Madrilenian campaign, but so far this has done little to boost his party's support.
- Should the PP go into coalition with VOX it would mark the first time that Spain's two most right-wing parties have worked together without Citizens as a moderating factor, and could be seen as presaging a similar coalition being deemed acceptable at the federal level after future elections
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.