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PPI: PCE Outcome Should Be Kept Front Of Mind Ahead Of Thurs CPI

US
A quick word on today's PPI: recall that August’s above-expected core CPI reading (+0.28% M/M vs 0.2% consensus) was quickly faded as the upside was seen coming from increases in categories that might not be repeated in core PCE – namely airfares.
  • Of course, PCE is the Fed’s preferred metric. Unusually this month we get the PPI print a day before CPI (out Thurs), whereas it’s usually released later.
  • With specific measures in PPI contributing directly into PCE (e.g. airfares and some medical care components), these areas in CPI will have to be unpicked from the aggregate core numbers if driven by outsized contributions.
  • For example in last month's report: PPI's airfare price measure increased 1.26% M/M after July's 1.63% M/M (in contrast to CPI airfares swinging from -8.1% to +4.9%).
  • As for today's PPI report: M/M seen at +0.3% (0.7% prior), ex-food/energy +0.2% (+0.2% prior).
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