Prabowo Headed For Presidency Despite Controversy

Indonesians vote today for a new president, vice president, senate, House of Representatives and local legislative councils in one of the largest exercises in democracy globally given its 200mn plus voters. Polls have had defence minister Prabowo in the lead since candidates were confirmed late last year but the latest SPIN poll is showing the highest support for him of any poll on 54.8%, which if that materialises will mean he’ll avoid a runoff vote in June.

• It is worth noting that SPIN was one of the first surveys to show Prabowo with over 50% of the vote but support for him increased almost 4pp from the last SPIN poll in early January. Also all the various surveys taken from mid-January are signalling that he will receive over 50% of the vote. SPIN has Anies in second place on 24.3% and the incumbent PDI-P’s Ganjar on 16.1%.
• Prabowo will also need to win a minimum of 20% of votes in at least half the provinces to avoid a runoff. Vote counting will begin today and continue tomorrow while the official election result will have to be announced by March 20. Survey companies will be at polling stations and publicise the “quick count” which has been an accurate indicator in the past.
• Current popular president Joko Widodo has implicitly given his backing to Prabowo through his son Gibran running as his VP candidate, which has boosted support for the controversial minister. He has said he will continue the current president’s policies. Jokowi is not allowed to run for another term but his influence may continue through his son.