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Pre-Election Jitters Dampens Short-Term Local Sentiment

CHILE
  • As a reminder, Chileans will head to the polls this weekend after a busy 2021 election calendar. In May, the Nation elected members of the constituent assembly to draft a new constitution, along with mayors, city councillors and governors before gubernatorial runoff elections in June.
  • If no presidential candidate receives a majority of the votes in the first round of voting on November 21, the two leading candidates will compete in a runoff on December 19.
  • Despite a prolonged selloff since May as uncertainties increased, the Chilean Peso had come back into favour over the past month with USDCLP falling from an 832.80 October high to lows of 788.22 lows just four weeks later.
  • The currency strength had three components in its favour – the rise of more market friendly Presidential candidate Jose Antonio Kast, ongoing aggressive BCCh rate hikes and the Senate's rejection of a fourth pension withdrawal.
  • As the dust settles over the pension withdrawal news, the focus now re-centres around the upcoming election with polls suggesting a runoff between conservative Kast and former front-runner Gabriel Boric as the most likely outcome. With both candidates at opposite ends of the political spectrum, renewed anxieties may be starting to surface.
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