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Pre-positioning ahead of the ECB meeting and US CPI

BOND SUMMARY
  • Core fixed income is on the front foot this morning with position squaring ahead of the ECB being cited as the reason.
  • This theme is consistent with the moves seen in EGB spreads with Italian, Spanish and Portuguese spreads in particular tightening (BTP the biggest mover on the day).
  • GGB spreads are barely changed on the day, with Greece holding a 10-year syndicated tap (MNI expects E3bln size).
  • There is also focus on today's USD38bln 10-year UST reopening, while the UK has sold GBP1bln of its 10-year linker. Germany looks to sell E1.5bln 30-year Bund and Portugal E0.75-1.00bln of OTs.
  • German trade data this morning was a little disappointing but had no market impact with focus remaining on tomorrow's ECB meeting and US inflation print.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-4 today at 132-18+ with 10y UST yields down -2.4bp at 1.512% and 2y yields down -0.4bp at 0.150%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.26 today at 172.36 with 10y Bund yields down -1.3bp at -0.238% and Schatz yields down -0.5bp at -0.679%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.14 today at 127.62 with 10y yields down -0.8bp at 0.761% and 2y yields down -0.1bp at 0.061%.
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