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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Traders at betting and prediction markets see former president Donald Trump as the slight favourite to win the presidential election ahead of this evening's debate with Vice President Kamala Harris.
- Notably, PredictIt shows the race as a dead heat for the first time since late July. Since taking the lead, Harris has been consistently valued at a 55%-60% implied probability of winning.
- Betting markets show Trump with a slight lead, but the race remain toss-ups. ElectionBettingOdds, a site that aggregates real-time data from various betting markets, shows Trump leading Harris 51% to 47%.
- Forecast models, while also firmly in toss-up territory, show Harris with a slight edge, likely factoring in a moderately beneficial set of fundamentals for Democrats. The 538 and DDHQ models show Harris wins 55/100 times compared to Trump's 45/100 times in their simulations. The Economist model shows a similar edge to Harris. Nate Silver's model is more bearish on Harris, showing Trump with a 65% implied probability of winning to Harris' 35%. Silver's model more aggressively controls for a so-called 'convention bounce' that assumes Harris is still benefiting from the tail end of the positive press coverage of the Democratic National Convention.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, % Implied Probability of Winning
Source: PredictIt
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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