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President Race On Knife-Edge Ahead Of Harris-Trump Debate

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Traders at betting and prediction markets see former president Donald Trump as the slight favourite to win the presidential election ahead of this evening's debate with Vice President Kamala Harris.

  • Notably, PredictIt shows the race as a dead heat for the first time since late July. Since taking the lead, Harris has been consistently valued at a 55%-60% implied probability of winning.
  • Betting markets show Trump with a slight lead, but the race remain toss-ups. ElectionBettingOdds, a site that aggregates real-time data from various betting markets, shows Trump leading Harris 51% to 47%.
  • Forecast models, while also firmly in toss-up territory, show Harris with a slight edge, likely factoring in a moderately beneficial set of fundamentals for Democrats. The 538 and DDHQ models show Harris wins 55/100 times compared to Trump's 45/100 times in their simulations. The Economist model shows a similar edge to Harris. Nate Silver's model is more bearish on Harris, showing Trump with a 65% implied probability of winning to Harris' 35%. Silver's model more aggressively controls for a so-called 'convention bounce' that assumes Harris is still benefiting from the tail end of the positive press coverage of the Democratic National Convention.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, % Implied Probability of Winning

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Traders at betting and prediction markets see former president Donald Trump as the slight favourite to win the presidential election ahead of this evening's debate with Vice President Kamala Harris.

  • Notably, PredictIt shows the race as a dead heat for the first time since late July. Since taking the lead, Harris has been consistently valued at a 55%-60% implied probability of winning.
  • Betting markets show Trump with a slight lead, but the race remain toss-ups. ElectionBettingOdds, a site that aggregates real-time data from various betting markets, shows Trump leading Harris 51% to 47%.
  • Forecast models, while also firmly in toss-up territory, show Harris with a slight edge, likely factoring in a moderately beneficial set of fundamentals for Democrats. The 538 and DDHQ models show Harris wins 55/100 times compared to Trump's 45/100 times in their simulations. The Economist model shows a similar edge to Harris. Nate Silver's model is more bearish on Harris, showing Trump with a 65% implied probability of winning to Harris' 35%. Silver's model more aggressively controls for a so-called 'convention bounce' that assumes Harris is still benefiting from the tail end of the positive press coverage of the Democratic National Convention.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, % Implied Probability of Winning

Keep reading...Show less