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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ITALY
The process to elect the next Italian president gets underway today, with deputies, senators, and regional representatives gathering in Rome to decide on Sergio Mattarella's successor. Prime Minister Mario Draghi is favourite to win through the electoral process, well known for back-room dealings and horse-trading between parties and factions. Over the weekend, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi withdrew his name from consideration, with speculation that he had been admitted to hospital.
- Betting markets continue to see Draghi as the strong favourite, with a 44.6% implied probability of becoming president according to Smarkets. Justice minister Marta Cartabia sits in second place on 13.2%. Former diplomat and Director of the Department of Information for Security Elisabetta Belloni is third on 10.0%, and former president of the Chamber of Deputies, Senator Pier Fernando Casini, is fourth on 7.8%
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next Italian President, %
Source: Smarkets
- Should Draghi be elected president (a process that is likely to take several days), it would leave a power vaccum at the head of his unwieldy grand coalition gov't. It is unclear whether a new PM would have the political gravitas to hold together a technocratic administration with parties of such differing political views.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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